Introduction
China’s yuan has strengthened sharply against the U.S. dollar, supported by strong exports, falling U.S. interest rates, and a softer greenback. After a 4.4% rise in 2025 and a further gain of about 2% so far in 2026, the currency has hovered near three-year highs. Chinese policymakers are now signaling discomfort with the pace of appreciation and are moving to manage expectations and reduce the risk of a rapid, self-reinforcing rally.
What Is Driving the Yuan Higher
The yuan’s strength is linked to a supportive external backdrop. Strong export performance has improved foreign currency inflows, while lower U.S. rates and a weaker dollar have reduced pressure on emerging market currencies. With the yuan near multi-year highs, the policy focus has shifted from defending against weakness to avoiding an overly strong currency that could challenge competitiveness and destabilize market positioning.
PBOC Scraps Risk Reserves on FX Forwards
China’s central bank announced it will scrap the 20% risk reserve requirement for foreign exchange forward contracts starting March 2. Removing this buffer lowers the cost of buying dollars via forwards and can encourage more dollar demand, which can temper yuan appreciation. The move reverses a tightening step introduced in September 2022 when authorities raised reserves to curb yuan losses and capital outflows.
Policymakers could also adjust the broader foreign exchange reserve requirement for financial institutions. Raising that requirement forces institutions to hold more foreign currency reserves, which can increase dollar buying and tighten onshore dollar liquidity, making it more expensive to maintain one-way yuan strength positions. The ratio is currently 4%, after being reduced from 6% in 2023.
Daily Fixing and Counter Cyclical Signaling
Authorities can influence currency expectations through the yuan’s daily guidance fixing. Since December, the central bank has been setting the official guidance weaker than market projections, a signal it is leaning against rapid appreciation. The gap between the official guidance and market estimates has recently widened to record levels, reflecting stronger intent to manage the pace of gains and deter momentum-driven trading.
State Banks as a Market Tool
Another lever is activity by major state-owned banks. These banks have been reported buying dollars in the onshore spot market and holding them, which can tighten onshore dollar liquidity and raise the cost of bets that rely on easy dollar funding. Even when the central bank is not seen directly in the market, state bank activity can function as a practical mechanism to guide conditions and curb excessive currency moves.
Verbal Guidance to Cool One Way Bets
Policy messaging remains a consistent tool. Officials frequently reiterate the goal of keeping the yuan “basically stable” and warn about the risks of currency overshooting. The central bank also encourages firms and investors to use derivatives to hedge currency exposure rather than placing one-direction trades, a signal aimed at reducing speculative positioning that can accelerate moves.
Conclusion
The yuan’s rise has been fueled by supportive fundamentals and a weaker dollar environment, but policymakers are acting to prevent a rapid appreciation that could disrupt trade dynamics and market stability. By adjusting forward market rules, guiding the daily fixing, using state banks to influence liquidity, and reinforcing messaging, the PBOC is signaling that it wants a stronger currency to remain orderly rather than accelerate into an overshoot.
